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Economic Chartbook

Written by Jane Caron, CFA, Chief Economic Strategist

• Following four consecutive quarters of decline, real GDP increased by 3.5% in the third quarter. Barring an exogenous shock, we expect the economy to continue to expand in coming quarters albeit at a slower pace. GDP growth in the fourth quarter should rise by about 2.5%, while growth in 2010 should average a similar pace.
• A virtuous feedback loop between the financial markets and the real economy has begun to take hold, and this bodes well for economic growth. Positive feedback loops are also evident in the housing market, manufacturing and export sectors. Economic growth will remain highly dependent on public support, however, until labor income is steadily expanding again. more

2010 Outlook

Written by Frank Koster, Chief Investment Officer

Just over a year ago, the 10-year Treasury was flirting with a 2% yield and investor enthusiasm for anything other than Treasuries was virtually non-existent. The S&P 500 had returned -37% for the calendar year 2008 and fell even lower through the first quarter of 2009. The global economy was going through a massive deleveraging, confidence in the financial system was at a nadir, and the possibility of the next Great Depression was being widely discussed. more

Additional Articles

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In the Markets

Written by Derrick Wulf, CFA, Head of Interest Rate Positioning

GDP rose an estimated 4.5% in the fourth quarter after growing 2.2% in the third quarter. The two consecutive quarters of growth followed one of the longest and deepest recessions on record. Modest improvements in consumption were augmented by strong business spending, most notably due to a restocking of depleted inventories. Strong productivity gains, lean inventories, and rising corporate profits suggest that recent strength will carry into 2010 with additional growth in business spending. Recent surveys show that median forecasts for 2010 GDP growth now fall around 2.75%, with several prominent Wall Street economists predicting growth of 3% or higher. more