Inside This Issue: Year Ahead 2012
While purporting to be an ancient Chinese proverb, the expression “May he live in interesting times” more commonly infers a curse (that is, may the environment be so interesting that it baffles analysis and precludes confidence in potential outcomes).
The expression, as it turns out, is neither ancient nor Chinese, and whether it is more proverb or curse, we suppose, is in the eye of the beholder. What we can say with certainty, however, is that 2011 exhibited no shortage of interesting events.
Forecasting the U.S. economy used to be a fairly straightforward exercise. The economic indicators warned us in October 2007 that we would enter a recession in December, and they accurately foretold us in early 2009 that we would exit the recession in June. They even tipped us off that the markets would put in a bottom during the first quarter of 2009.
So what are they telling us now?